Travelers Championship

The Travelers Championship

We were treated to a fantastic US Open at Pinehurst No 2, which will go down in the memory banks as to one of the best Majors we have witnessed over recent years.

From our point of view we got a full place return from Hideki Matsuyama to limit the damage on an otherwise fairly disappointing week for us. The Japanese star entered Sunday five shots back of 54 hole leader Bryson Dechambeau and needing a combination of a superb final round and some help from those up top if he was going to bag us the win. In the end he produced a solid 70, meaning he was never really in the hunt but comfortably bagged the place.

The business end of the event though was fought out between Dechambeau and Rory McIlroy. The American had started the day with a three shot lead however a combination of scrappy play from him and superb stuff from McIlroy lead to the Norther Irishman opening up a two shot lead on the back nine. Unfortunately though McIlroy floundered just when it mattered most, firstly bogeying the par three 15^th before missing a par putt from inside 3ft on 16 and, most gut wrenchingly, from inside 4ft on the final hole. This left Dechambeau with a one shot lead, still though the drama wasn’t over as he had to get up and down from 55yds from the bunker at the last to close things out.

Credit to Dechambeau then he produced the shot of his life before rolling in the 4ft par putt.

There is no doubt that of all the Major chances McIlroy has had since 2014 this one will hurt the most. Ultimately however you look at it he crumbled under the pressure and it is hard to see how he will recover from this. Let’s just hope he does and he finally gets Major number five, preferably at Augusta!

So onwards we go as the tour heads to the North East and to Connecticut for the traditional post US Open slot the Travelers Championship.

The tournament has been a fixture on the tour since the early 1950s and it has been played at its current home TPC River Highlands since 1991.

Since 2007 the event has held the spot in the calendar of the week after the US Open with the only exception to this during this period being in 2016, when as part of the tweaking of the schedule due to the Olympics it was moved to August and in 2020 when it followed on from the RBC Heritage in the revised calendar that followed the Covid related shutdown.

For the second year running event has been given ‘signature event’ status, however this year we have a limited field no cut set up in play. Following on the heels of the brutal test of Pinehurst and the previous weeks signature event, The Memorial, which was again played in testing conditions and not unsurprisingly some big names including Rory McIlroy have already questioned the scheduling.

Still, whether they want to be here or not the big names have all turned up. The market therefore is of course headed up by Scottie Scheffler, the worlds number one is then followed in the market by McIlroy and Xander Schauffele both also at single figure odds.

COURSE

TPC River Highlands is a Par 70 measuring at 6841 yards.

The greens are Bentgrass with Poa Annua.

The original course designer was J Moss back in 1928. Subsequently the course has undergone renovations in the hands of Pete Dye in 1982 and Bobby Weed in 1989.

There are different ways to play TPC River Highlands. One, as we have seen from Bubba over the years, is to overpower it’s collection of short par 4s. Another as shown by the likes of Russell Knox, Ken Duke and 2020 winner Chez Reavie is to plot your way round. Either way plenty of birdies will be required on what is basically a short resort course.

HISTORY

Lets take a look at the winners here since 2012.

2023 Keegan Bradley

2022 Xander Schauffele

2021 Harris English

2020 Dustin Johnson*

2019 Chez Reavie

2018 Bubba Watson

2017 Jordan Spieth

2016 Russell Knox*

2015 Bubba Watson

2014 Kevin Streelman

2013 Ken Duke

2012 Marc Leishman

*Denotes when the event was not played the week after the US Open.

As you can see from the list and as mentioned above there have been different types of winner here of late.

Over the past 10yrs we have seen two wins for Bubba who basically over powered the course [he also triumphed here in 2010] and a similar performance from Dustin Johnson in 2020.

Then we have seen wins for Reavie, Knox, Duke, Leishman, Streelman, English, Schauffele and Bradley last year, all renowned tee to green exponents who have combined this with a hot putting week.

Streelman of course memorably made seven straight birdies when closing out victory in 2014.

It is not unsurprising that after the demanding test we usually see at the year’s second Major the week before this event, The Travelers tends to be won by a lower tier player.

Putting aside then the two editions over the past ten years, which were not played directly after the US Open and the only real exceptions to this over the other eight years have been Spieth’s win in 2017, Bubba’s wins in 2015 and 2018 and Schauffele’s win last year.

It’s worth noting however that Jordan was never really in serious contention at Erin Hills in 2017, finishing down the field in 35^th place. In addition it would be fair to say that the challenge offered up by Erin Hills was more than akin to a ‘week in week out’ PGA tour event than the US Open.

With regards to Bubba’s wins in 2015 and 2018 whilst he was seen as a marquee player at the time of those wins here his record in his home championship is poor and he had duly missed the cut both at Shinnecock and at Chambers Bay the week before.

As for Schauffele let’s not forget that in 2022 he was ending a three year plus winless drought here so motivation was high. In addition while he had finished 14^th at the US Open the week before he was never right in the thick of things closing with a 68 on Sunday.

Meanwhile last years winner Bradley was fully focused in what is to him his ‘fifth major’ as he hails from the area. In addition had missed the cut at the US Open the week before so he arrived reasonably fresh.

Of the remaining three winners over the past ten years two of them, Duke and Leishman did not play in the US Open the week before and Streelman missed the cut in the 2014 US Open.

The two players however who did buck this trend significantly though were Chez Reavie in 2019 and Harris English in 2021. Reavie had the Major of his life at Pebble Beach in 2019 finishing third and then carried that momentum straight through to his victory the following week, a fantastic achievement. Similarly English finished third at Torrey Pines and again rode the wave to victory here.

This year of course with the field now being an elite, limited one we are more likely to have a bigger name winning but again it could well pay to focus on those who were not a factor or even missed the cut at Pinehurst.

With regards to experience here one of the past ten winners, Jordan Spieth, was making his debut the year he won, while another Marc Leishman had played here only once before finishing 70^th. All other winners though had made at least two starts, with several like English, Reavie, Streelman, Knox, Bradley. [& of course Bubba on his second and third wins] having made multiple starts here.

Dustin Johnson was making his fourth appearance here when he triumphed in 2020 although he had not played the event since 2014 while last year’s winner Schauffele was playing here for the fourth time.

Previous good course form though is not necessarily a prerequisite. This can be seen by looking at the likes of English who had a best of seventh in seven previous starts and Duke who had a best placed 27^th in three tries prior to his win.

Looking at other winners they also had a mixed bag on previous trips to TPC River Highlands with Reavie having a best place of 11^th in numerous attempts and Knox 13^th. Streelman had fared better posting two top tens in six previous visits, however Dustin Johnson had only managed a best of 31^st in his three previous starts here while, similarly Schauffele had a best of 20^th in three visits. The 2023 champion Bradley however has been an ever present over the years with two top tens to his name.

In all honesty form coming in to the event doesn’t give too many clues either although English and 2019 winner Chez Reavie did telegraph their wins with a third place at the US Open the week before. Of the other eight though only two, Spieth and Leishman had posted a top ten in their previous three starts, and four had missed the cut in their prior start including Streelman who had missed his previous three cuts! 2020 champion Dustin Johnson meanwhile had a MC and 17^th place finish to his name in his two starts since lockdown.

Schauffele though did arrive here in typically consistently solid form in 2022 having posted three straight top 20s on the back of a fifth at the Byron Nelson. Bradley meanwhile had produced some solid if unspectacular golf prior to missing the cut at the US Open.

Finally Duke and Leishman were all clinching their maiden PGA Tour victories when they won here.

As mentioned earlier plenty of birdies will be required this week to get the job done and over the past ten years we have seen winning scores ranging -23 last year from Bradley to -12 on a couple of occasions including from Spieth, with the average over recent years being between -12 to -17.

WEATHER FORECAST

Touch wood we look set for an uninterrupted week with the occasional shower mixed in to some sunshine. Temperatures look set to sit around the 70 mark.

Wind could be an issue with 20mph+ gusts forecast from Friday onwards.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

PATRICK CANTLAY – 22/1 – 2.5pts E/W 1/6 odds 1^st 10 - FINISHED T5th

I am going to start this week with Patrick Cantlay.

Cantlay has no doubt been tough to follow over the past 18 months and anyone who has been patiently waiting for him to strike will I am sure be somewhat frustrated now.

Winless since the BMW Championship in 2022 Cantlay has had a typically steady but unspectacular season posting five top 12 finishes and making all of his cuts until an uncharacteristic blip at the Memorial recently.

Whatever went wrong at Muirfield Village though Patrick used it to spur him on to his best Major performance to date, a third place at the US Open, which saw him in the hunt right up till the end. While Cantlay will I am sure be disappointed not to have bagged the trophy, he can take heart from how he hung tough all day on Sunday and this certainly bodes well for his prospects of stepping up at the highest level.

Arriving at TPC River Highlands then on the back of a week, which saw him sixth in approach play and tenth in putting at Pinehurst, Patrick should be in great spirits.

While many of the game’s biggest names would almost certainly rather be having a week off this week Cantlay though is a different story, clearly a fan of TPC River Highlands this will be his seventh straight trip here with all previous six visits bringing a finish between 4^th and 15^th, with the fourth coming last year when we were onboard.

In addition let’s not forget his love affair with this event started way back in 2011 when he shot 60 here as an amateur.

Having missed the cut at the Memorial Cantlay should be marginally fresher than some of the other big names here and as we saw again at Hilton Head the former Fedex Cup Champion is more than capable of getting in the mix straight after a Major.

I’ll happily take him then to get back in the winners enclosure here this week.

SAHITH THEEGALA –33/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 48th

Those with longer memories will remember I made a case for Theegala to flourish here two years ago only to witness him agonisingly let the event slip through his fingers on the 72^nd hole.

Since then Sahith has bagged his first tour win at the Fortinet last Fall, when we were onboard and he continues to knock on the door in big events.

Last week at Pinehurst I sided with Theegala only for him to get off to a horrendous start, which saw him +7 through six holes on day one!

Credit to Sahith he settled down at this point, made the cut and basically played the remainder of the event in level par finishing +7 in 32^nd place. Furthermore despite terrible day one stats he finished the week 36^th in approach, 37^th off the tee and 50^th in putting.

Back to TPC River Highlands then and one of my main reasons for liking Theegala here in 2022 was that I felt that as someone who is known as a shot maker similar to Bubba Watson he may take to the track like the two time Masters Champion did and this proved to be the case.

Last year Sahith returned here an perhaps inevitably after the near miss the year before he struggled, finishing 52^nd. He was at the time though without a top 20 finish since Hilton Head in April.

Talking of Hilton Head and Theegala has now posted back to back top five finishes there to go with a top ten at Sawgrass this year so it would seem Sahith is a fan of Pete Dye layouts with those finishes correlating nicely here. I’ll take the Californian to be right in the hunt here again this week.

SEPP STRAKA – 50/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 23rd

Next cab off the rank is Sepp Straka.

Straka arrives here on the back of five top 11 finishes in his past seven starts, including four top eights. Clearly then he is in great form at the moment.

Known for his solid ball striking Sepp sits perfectly in the mould of past winners here like Streelman, Duke, Knox and Bradley last year.

Fifth at Hilton Head this year and third there in 2022 gives us some nice correlating Pete Dye form, while a win at TPC Deere Run and a runner up finish at TPC Southwind shows us he enjoys a TPC course challenge.

Sepp is making his sixth start in the event this year with a best of tenth so nothing spectacular to date here then, however this sits in line with many past winners here who hade made multiple starts but never really flourished.

I had a feeling Sepp’s weak link, his touch around the greens would get highlighted at Pinehurst and this proved to be the case, I’ll happily take him here though to step back up at course, which should be much more to his liking.

SI WOO KIM – 66/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 31st

Next up for me is Si Woo Kim.

Si Woo has been a model of consistency this year missing only one cut at the PGA Championship and posting a bunch of top 15 finishes. At the US Open Si Woo produced another solid week finishing 32^nd.

Looking at the Koreans record at TPC River Highlands and he has never really caught light here with a best of 11^th, while he has missed his last three cuts. That said this really should be a great track for him, we have the obvious Sawgrass links, while his win at Waialae link well with former champions Bradley and English who both have great track records at the Sony. Finally his stellar record at Sedgefield links well here particularly through Poston who was runner up here a couple of years ago.

Si Woo sits sixth from tee to green and 10^th in approach on tour this season with the putter for, which he ranks an awful 160^th the club clearly holding him back. As we know though a strong ball striker who struggles on the greens is one strong putting week away from destroying a field. I’ll take Si Woo then to have that week here.

PATRICK RODGERS –  150/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 16th

Finally I am keen to have at least one player in our team who did not go through the grind of Pinehurst and therefore arrives fresh and I’ll make that man Patrick Rodgers.

Rodgers has struggled of late missing the cut at the PGA and the Memorial before failing to qualify for the US Open. As we know though Patrick can catch fire at any point and I am going to chance that the time off will have will have given him a chance to refresh.

Patrick has three top tens on his CV this season all of, which have come after a poor run of results and significantly for this week his most recent big finish came the week after the Masters at Hilton Head where he was sixth in a Signature Event on the Pete Dye corelating lay out. Certainly some comparisons to this week then.

Patrick has been a regular visitor to TPC River Highlands over the years with a best of third in 2016. I’m happy to chance him this week then at juicy each way odds to catch fire once more.